Physics Seminar: Exponential Growth in Ebola Outbreak Since May 14, 2014 by A. G. Hunt

Wright State University Physics Department Seminar
Friday, October 17, 2014
3:00pm in 204 Fawcett Hall

"Exponential Growth in Ebola Outbreak Since May 14, 2014"
by A. G. Hunt, Wright State University, Department of Physics

Abstract
Contrary to general opinion, the current Ebola outbreak in West Africa followed an exponential growth curve starting already in mid-May. The death toll followed an exponential growth curve with almost the same time constant, allowing direct calculation of the mortality of the outbreak. This value remained steady at about 72%, contrary to the estimate of the World Health Organization of slightly above 50%. Until the last two weeks, the projected date at which the number of infected individuals would reach 100,000 had remained steady at January 19th. Updated statistics from September 6 advanced that date by at least a month. Estimates suggest that over 20,000 already have been infected, exceeding the number that the WHO has declared could be the eventual outcome.