Excerpt from the Dayton Business Journal
The Covid-19 pandemic will continue to be the main factor in determining the health of the Dayton region’s economy in 2021, but local experts say it should be a rapid recovery when given the “all clear” to return to normalcy.
Though new cases, deaths and hospitalizations related to Covid-19 are still on the rise, the phased distribution of a vaccine and a new stimulus package should help individuals and businesses recover in both the near- and long-term. Unemployment funding to help those who have lost their jobs during the pandemic, coupled with new rounds of economic disaster and paycheck protection loans for businesses, would provide immediate assistance, while the widespread vaccinations are the key to ushering in a full economic recovery.
Reports indicate that, based on current contracts with pharmaceutical companies, about two-thirds of the U.S. population should be vaccinated by late summer. However, epidemiologists say that number isn’t enough to ensure the economy will return to normal.
The good news is more contracts are expected to be signed this year, which would lead to additional doses of the vaccine. “It’s still hard to say when we’ll get to a vaccination level that’s safe for the economy,” said Thomas Traynor, dean of the Raj Soin College of Business and economics professor at Wright State University. “I think we’re months away from that at least.”
Traynor said the early months of 2021 will look a lot like the last few months of 2020 — limited activity by the public reflected by a decrease in spending. Small business owners will likely continue to struggle as a result, even with a new round of relief funding.
“If we’re looking at late summer or even early summer before most people can get vaccinated, the first part of the year I wouldn’t expect a whole lot of change,” he said. “But it’s important to point out that things are changing fast. We could get additional vaccines with great results to be approved and pushed out into the market, but we don’t know today when that will happen.”
The key, Traynor said, is getting the “all clear” from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But that will only happen when enough people are vaccinated, and the government feels confident to tell people they can return to their normal, pre-pandemic lives.
